FQ1 revenue grew 9% yoy,
however adjusted EBITDA loss reached $50 million and was down from
the $27 million loss in the year-ago period.
Full-year revenue guidance
of $260-280 million was reiterated, but adjusted EBITDA loss
guidance of $195-215 million remains disappointing.
With the company's enterprise value now
under $1 billion, investors could start to view 23andMe as a
potential acquisition target from a larger drug development
company.
23andMe (NASDAQ:Retro puffy nipples) has been a
relatively well-known consumer product company for many years.
After the company went public via a SPAC, investors poured into the
name with a heightened belief that 23andMe could one day
monetize their significant
proprietary data set, hosting over 13 million consumer genetic
tests.
Revenue during the most recent
quarter grew 9% yoy, but adjusted EBITDA loss reached $50 million,
down from the $27 million loss in the year-ago period. And with the
company having $479 million of cash left on the balance sheet, the
current run-rate FCF loss of $70 million gives them just 1.5 years
left of operating before they need a capital raise.
Since the company completed their
public offering via a SPAC, the stock has fallen from $10 down to
$3 as investors continue to see disappointing financial results.
And while there continues to be progression with the company's
co-development programs, investors have yet to see a therapeutic
program become mainstream and gain full regulatory approval.
While the company reported
disappointing results, investors should continue to look at the
company for what they actually are. They are not a high-growth,
profitable, cash flow generating company. However, they are the
leader in DNA collections, hosting significant amounts of
proprietary data for the potential co-development of future
drugs.
For now, I continue to be a
believer in the long-term potential of the company and given the
ongoing stock weakness, one may start to think of 23andMe as a
possible acquisition target for a larger drug development
company.
For those who are unfamiliar,
23andMe provides consumers with DNA genetic testing products,
providing insights into an individual's ancestry, DNA, and
genetics. With over 13 million consumers being genotyped and 80% of
those opting-in to 23andMe's research, the company has developed a
vast amount of proprietary data into DNA sequencing.
Given this vast amount of data,
23andMe has developed 50+ programs, largely in early-stage
therapeutic areas. With the hope of co-developing a drug, 23andMe
has a strategic collaboration with GSK (Xom giai tri phim bo), giving
23andMe access to GSK's technology and platform while GSK gets
access to 23andM3's data sets.
The company reported FQ1 earnings
in early August, with revenue growing 9% yoy to $64.5 million. As a
backdrop, the company will likely continue to grow revenue in the
5-10% range as they are more focused on data collection for the
potential co-development of future drugs. So while the near-term
financial metrics are unattractive at face value, I continue to
believe the real value of the company lies within their
database.
Regarding FQ1 revenue growth,
Omar epps tattoo a few moving pieces. Investors should also
remember that the company's Research Services revenue is largely
made up of their collaboration with GSK, representing around 13% of
total revenue.
First quarter revenue growth was primarily due to the inclusion
of a full quarter of telehealth services and an increase in
subscription revenue. These increases were partially offset by
lower revenue in the other areas of Consumer & Research
Services.
From a profitability standpoint,
the company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $50 million, which
was nearly double that of the $27 million loss in the year ago
period. Combined with increased costs from the previously acquired
Lemonaid's telehealth business, 23andMe also saw increased labor
costs.
Given the ongoing losses, investors
will naturally start to look at the company's balance sheet and
their ability to operate as an ongoing concern. At the end of FQ1,
23andMe had $479 million of cash, though they burned through ~$75
million of cash just during the most recent quarter. At this
run-rate, the company would have a little over 1.5 years left of
operating before one of two things would need to happen.
First, and likely the most
preferable, 23andMe would need to significantly improve their cash
burn and start to move towards profitability. While investors
likely don't expect to see profitability in the near-term, by
better managing their cash burn, 23andMe would have a safer buffer
of cash.
If that does not occur, then option
two would be for the company to raise capital, either through
issuing debt or equity. Given that the stock remains significantly
down from the company's original listing price (down around 70%),
raising meaningful equity would significantly dilute current
shareholders.
For the full-year, the company
reiterated their revenue guidance of $260-280 million, which
compares to consensus expectations for $275 million. Adjusted
EBITDA loss is also expected to be $195-215 million, which
reiterates my belief that the company may need to raise capital in
the near future unless they are able to get expenses under better
control.
While the financial situation has
seen better days, 23andMe continues to succeed in building out
their moat around Susan boyle porn.
In our therapeutics efforts, we continue to use our research
platform to create a pipeline of more than 50 programs backed by
human genetic data with two now in Phase 1 clinical trials. We also
just started the fifth year of our exclusive target discovery
collaboration with GSK. Our collaboration with GSK has been very
productive and we believe GSK's decision to exercise their option
for a fifth year further demonstrates the value of our unique
database for discovering novel targets for drug development. We
believe the new therapeutics that come out of our discovery engine
will eventually play a significant role in helping people benefit
from the human genome.
For now, I believe investors will
continue to focus on the path towards financial improvement and
while the positive updates on the data and GSK operating side of
the business are great to see, ultimately the stock will move in
relation to a combination of both financial and operational
acumens.
With the company now having 13.1
million genotyped customers and 425k 23andMe+ subscribers, they
continue to build out their proprietary dataset, thus further
giving them a competitive advantage. Their co-development
partnership with GSK has also enabled 23andMe to be involved with
50+ programs aimed at developing therapeutics. While the success
rate remains very low with all therapeutic investments, it only
takes one major breakthrough for the company to achieve scaled
success.
Given the challenged financials
combined with the long-term growth partially relying on a new
drug/therapeutic discovery, this is a very challenging name to
value. Add in some uncertainty around how long the company can
continue to burn cash before they need to raise funds, and it's no
shock to see the stock remain under significant pressure during
these challenging macro times.
With the company's enterprise value
just under $1 billion, it also would not be surprising to see the
company be a potential acquisition target for a larger drug
development company. Additionally, given their close relationship
with GSK, who has a market cap approaching $60 billion, 23andMe
could become a strategic acquisition given their significant
proprietary data.
While I have not seen of any
acquisition rumors, it would not surprise me if this type of
headline hit the news over the coming quarters. Yes, the macro
environment and rising interest rates makes an acquisition a little
less attractive now, however, with 23andMe's enterprise value
continuing to move south, this could end up being a plausible
outcome.
For now, I continue to believe that
the stock has some long-term upside potential. Yes, I have been
wrong about this company and have seen shares drop from $10 to $3,
but given the negative sentiment, long-term therapeutic
co-development potential, and possible acquisition target, I
believe this is a name worth holding on to.
Individual investor with hands-on experience in the equity markets.
Largely focusing on Tech companies or major mispricings in the
market.
Disclosure:I/we have no stock,
option or similar derivative position in any of the companies
mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the
next 72 hours.I wrote
this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not
receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I
have no business relationship with any company whose stock is
mentioned in this article.
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